Neurocomplexity Leadership Theory: A Cognitive–Systemic Model for Decision-Making Under High Uncertainty
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64137/31079423/IJEBMR-V1I2P103Keywords:
Neurocomplexity, Leadership theory, Brain networks, Uncertainty, Complexity science, Cognition, EntropyAbstract
This article introduces Neurocomplexity Leadership Theory (NLT), a new theoretical framework integrating neuroscience, complexity science, and leadership studies to explain how strategic decision-making functions under conditions of volatility, uncertainty, and system instability. Moving beyond psychological trait accounts, NLT conceptualises leadership as an emergent cognitive–systemic process grounded in neural network dynamics and nonlinear organisational feedback loops. Drawing from predictive processing, large-scale brain network theory, and adaptive systems science, NLT argues that decision quality emerges through the co-evolution of neural plasticity, uncertainty management, affective regulation, and contextual entropy absorption. The theory challenges traditional perspectives that view leadership attributes as stable traits or rational cognitive choices, proposing instead that effective leadership arises from the dynamic integration of cognitive networks capable of reorganising information under stress and unpredictability. The article synthesises empirical evidence from cognitive neuroscience, organisational studies, and social complexity to formalise a conceptual apparatus capable of explaining why some leaders thrive under uncertainty while others collapse. It concludes by outlining the scientific implications of neurocomplexity for education, leadership development, and institutional design
References
[1] B. J. Avolio, and B. M. Bass, “Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire: Third edition manual and sampler set,” Redwood City, CA: Mind Garden, 2004.
[2] B. M. Bass, “Leadership and performance beyond expectations,” New York, NY: Free Press, 1985.
[3] B. M. Bass, “From transactional to transformational leadership: Learning to share the vision,” Organizational Dynamics, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 19-31, 1990.
[4] Danielle S. Bassett, and Olaf Sporns, “Network neuroscience, Nature Neuroscience,” vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 353-364, 2017.
[5] Roger E. Beaty et al., “Default and executive network coupling supports creative idea production,” Scientific Reports, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 1-13, 2016.
[6] Antonie Bechara, and Antonio R. Damasio, “The somatic marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic decision,” Games and Economic Behavior, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 336-372, 2005.
[7] R. R. Blake, and J. S. Mouton, “The managerial grid: The key to leadership excellence,” Houston, TX: Gulf Publishing, 1964.
[8] Stephen P. Borgatti, and Pacey C. Foster, “The net, work paradigm in organizational research: A review and typology,” Journal of Management, vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 991-1013, December 2003.
[9] E. Brynjolfsson, and A. McAfee, A. “The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies,” New York, NY: W.W. Norton, 2014.
[10] F. E. Fiedler, “A theory of leadership effectiveness,” New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1967.
[11] K. Friston, “The free-energy principle: A unified brain theory?” Nature Reviews Neuroscience, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 127-138, 2010.
[12] D.D. Garrett, et al., "The importance of brain signal variability," Journal of Neuroscience, vol. 33, no. 17, pp. 759–772, 2013. Doi https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.3241-12.2013
[13] James K. Hazy, and Mary Uhl-Bien, “Toward operationalizing complexity leadership: How generative, administrative and community-building leadership practices enact organizational outcomes,” Leadership, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 79-104, 2015.
[14] P. Hersey, and K. H. Blanchard, “Management of organizational behavior: Utilizing human resources, 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs,” NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1977.
[15] D. Kahneman, “Thinking, fast and slow, Farrar, Straus and Giroux,” 2011.
[16] Kurt Lewin, Ronald Lippitt, and Ralph K. White, “Patterns of aggressive behavior in experimentally created social climates,” Journal of Social Psychology, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 271-301, 1939.
[17] O. Makinde, Artificial Intelligence and Public Sector Reform in AFRICA, African Affairs, vol. 122, no. 488, pp. 415–439, 2023.
[18] B. S. McEwen, and J. H. Morrison, “The brain on stress: Vulnerability and plasticity of the prefrontal cortex over the life course,” Neuron, vol. 79, no. 1, pp. 16-29, July 10 2013.
[19] M. Mitchell, “Complexity: A Guided Tour,” Oxford University Press, 2009.
[20] E. Mitleton-Kelly, “Complex systems and evolutionary perspectives on organisations: The application of complexity theory to organisations,” Oxford, UK: Pergamon. 2003.
[21] P. Moleka, “Innovative entrepreneurship through alternative finance: A framework for sustainable and innovative business models,” In Alternative Finance, Routledge, pp. 13-28 2024.
[22] Pitshou Moleka, “The role of leadership in fostering innovation: a qualitative study in organizational settings,” Advanced Research in Economics and Business Strategy Journal, vol. 5, no. 02, pp. 48-53, 2024.
[23] P. Moleka, “Ubuntu and Sustainable Cities in Africa,” In The Palgrave Handbook of Ubuntu, Inequality and Sustainable Development, Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, March 2025, pp. 355-370.
[24] B. Ndemo, and T. Weiss, “Digital Kenya: An entrepreneurial revolution in the making,” Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
[25] Luiz Pessoa, “The Entangled Brain: How Perception, Cognition and Emotion Are Woven Together,” MIT Press, 2022.
[26] William W. Seeley et al., “Dissociable intrinsic connectivity networks for salience processing and executive control,” Journal of Neuroscience, vol. 27, no. 9, pp. 2349-2356, 28 February 2007.
[27] James M. Shine et al., “Human cognition involves the dynamic integration of neural activity and neuromodulatory systems,” Nature Neuroscience, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 289-296, 2019.
[28] Ralph M. Stogdill, “Personal factors associated with leadership: A survey of the literature,” Journal of Psychology, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 35-71, 1948.
[29] M. Uhl-Bien, and M. Arena, “Leadership for organizational adaptability: A theoretical synthesis and integrative framework,” The Leadership Quarterly, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 89-104, February 2018.
[30] Pei Wang, On Defining Artificial Intelligence, In F. A. Gers & P. Wang (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence: Foundations, Theory and Algorithms, Berlin, Germany: Springer, pp. 1-17, 2019.


